Twelve months ago, the Canberra Raiders were the envy of the competition. In 2025, they won the Minor Premiership for the first time in 35 years, only the second time in club history, finishing the regular season with 19 wins from 24 games. It was a historic achievement, the culmination of years of patient rebuilding under Ricky Stuart, and it had the nation’s capital daring to dream of a premiership for the first time in a generation. 

That dream came crashing down quickly. Canberra became the first team to finish first and suffer two straight finals defeats since St George Illawarra 16 years ago, bundled out of the finals in straight sets despite the fanfare that had surrounded their minor premiership triumph. It was a brutal reality check, but the expectation heading into 2026 was that the squad remained largely intact, the lessons had been learned, and the Green Machine would return hungry and better equipped. 

Instead, the Raiders find themselves sitting outside the top eight, with their finals hopes hanging in the balance. The same team that was untouchable through large parts of 2025 has looked a shadow of itself, leaking points they wouldn’t have conceded a year ago and failing to string together the kind of winning runs that define serious premiership contenders. 

The departure of halfback Jamal Fogarty was flagged as a significant loss heading into the season, leaving the club with an untested halves combination in the two Ethans, Strange and Sanders. Both are talented players with genuine upside, but asking two young halves to carry a team under pressure has exposed the inexperience at times, particularly in tight games where composure and game management are decisive.

The home ground story has been especially damaging. The Raiders have lost six of their last seven games at GIO Stadium, a remarkable and deeply troubling statistic for a club that built so much of its 2025 success on being fortress Canberra. GIO Stadium has traditionally been one of the toughest road trips in rugby league, with cold conditions, passionate supporters and a unique atmosphere helping the Raiders build a formidable home-ground advantage over the years but that advantage has not been as strong in 2026. 

One of the biggest concerns throughout the opening rounds has been Canberra’s defensive consistency. The Raiders built much of their success last season on resilience, physicality and their ability to grind out results in difficult situations. This year, however, they have leaked too many points and regularly found themselves chasing games rather than controlling them. 

The Raiders currently sit on 10 points with a points differential of -78, a far cry from the dominant outfit that spent much of 2025 sitting atop the competition. With 13 rounds still remaining in the regular season there is time to recover, but the margin for error is shrinking week by week. The top eight is congested, and several clubs are queuing up to take the spots Canberra once looked certainties to occupy. 

Ricky Stuart has been here before, he rebuilt this club from the bottom up once already, and nobody doubts his ability to get a response. But the window for that response is narrowing rapidly. The Raiders need wins now, not potential. For a club that was top of the table this time last year, the view from outside the top eight is a sobering one.